Trump, a notorious climate change denier and minimizer, has talked openly about his dislike for the Paris Climate Change Agreement for months. And on June 1st, he officially announced plans for the US to withdraw from the agreement. The agreement, a UN treaty signed by 195 nations, is a global commitment to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change as one united world.
Unfortunately, the President of the United States doesn’t see the value in honoring that commitment and leading the U.S. in doing its part to fight against climate change. The United States is now one of three countries, along with Syria and Nicaragua, who have pulled out or refused to sign the accord. While details on what withdrawing from the agreement, which went into legal force in November 2016, will look like are not quite clear, we know that if the United States exits we will face certain climate disaster.
What Happens to the Environment when the U.S. Pulls Out?
By pulling out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, scientists believe that the United States will contribute significantly to an already terrible climate problem. Approximately three billion tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions will be released into the air every year if the U.S. forgoes their commitments to the agreement.
In a worst case scenario, the United States would be solely responsible for adding 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming to the global environment by 2030. Some scientists fear this number may grow even higher if other countries follow the US in exiting from the agreement. Other scientists are hopeful that increased use of renewable resources would curb this number. However, with Trump’s plans to slash the EPA’s budget, renewable energy research may not be possible.
Other scenarios predict the U.S. would increase the global temperature by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.18 to 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit). While this number is lower than the worst case scenario estimate, it still puts the world in grave danger. And it makes the Paris agreement pact, to ensure the planet doesn’t warm by more than 2 degrees Celsius, much more difficult to achieve. Climate Interactive co-director Andrew Jones puts it in no uncertain terms. Jones says, "The U.S. matters a great deal. That amount could make the difference between meeting the Paris limit of two degrees and missing it."
What Are Other Countries Saying?
In the weeks leading up to Trump’s controversial decision to pull out from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, many world leaders expressed their concern. During his visit to Europe, Trump was confronted with facts on climate change and persuasive discussions but they fell on deaf ears.
Pope Francis presented Trump with the gift of his papal encyclical on the environment during Trump’s visit to the Vatican. The pope was hoping this gift might help to sway Trump’s opinions on climate change. Unfortunately, it did not. And since announcing plans for the U.S. to exit the agreement, Trump has been met with even more outrage from the global community and his own citizens.
Researchers and climate leaders are split on the effect that a US exit will have on the rest of the world. John Schellnhubler, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, is close to saying “good riddance” to the United States. Schellnhubler, who came up with the 2 degree Celsius goal for the Paris agreement, said, “"Ten years ago (a U.S. exit) would have shocked the planet. Today if the U.S. really chooses to leave the Paris agreement, the world will move on with building a clean and secure future."
But not everyone agrees. Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech, believes the United States exiting spells certain disaster. She predicted, "There will be ripple effects from the United States' choices across the world."
Only time will tell which scientist, Schellnhubler or Hayhoe, will prove to be correct. But the fact remains, the current administration’s choice to exit the historic deal is certainly another powerful blow to our nation’s commitment to the health of the planet.