In December 2015, an astounding 200+ countries scored a victory for climate change by crafting a document after talks in Paris that aims to reduce human contribution to global warming.  In the 9 months since, many countries, including the United States, have ratified this accord, making it a fundamental part of their national decision making.  Come November, this could all be reversed thanks to the terrifying notion that Donald Trump may be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States of America.

What is the Paris Climate Agreement?
In Paris, delegates agreed to cap global temperature rise between 1.5 - 2 degrees Celsius (2.6 - 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit).  Unfortunately, a legally binding document was not crafted, largely due to inter-country politics.  However, delegates were encouraged to ratify the Paris Accord.  They were asked to adopt the plan and determine how their own country would make a worthwhile contribution to meeting the global targets.  It is clear that geopolitical relationships will play a huge part in the success of the Paris Accord. In fact, geopolitics, perhaps more so than technological advancements, may be the biggest factor in the fight against global warming.  

What has the world done since Paris? 
In an astonishing move, US President Barack Obama met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and together the two countries agreed to ratify the Paris Accord.  While the United States and China do not always see eye to eye, President Obama released a statement following the ratification acknowledging that both countries see the importance of collaborating on the issue of climate change.  They signed the agreement at a G20 meeting earlier this year in Hangzhou.  Together, the United States and China are responsible for 40% of global emissions.

Many other countries have fallen in line and moved to ratify the Paris Accord since the December meetings.  Brazil, the 7th largest emitter, recently signed.  Both Japan and New Zealand also have plans to sign in the near future.  It is expected that many more countries will ratify the agreement in advance of the UN Climate Summit happening in Morocco this November. 

Unfortunately, not every country is taking steps in the right direction.  With Great Britain’s latest decision to leave the European Union (“Brexit”), climate activists worry  they are stepping away from global collaboration and regulations on climate change.  European solidarity, a key factor at the Paris talks, is no longer ensured.  Nigel Lawson, chair of the Vote Leave campaign in Great Britain, is also chairman of Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think tank dedicated to sabotaging efforts to convert the country to green energy.   

Where is Trump on all this?
Infamously, Trump has referred to global warming as a hoax invented by the Chinese in order to detract from American business.  In May, Trump pledged to overturn the Paris Accord.  He explained that foreign bureaucrats should have no control over how much energy is used by Americans in their own country.  Flying in the face of scientific prove, national laws and public opinion, Trump has also vowed to revive the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, reverse all climate-friendly acts that were put in place by the Obama administration and promote the coal industry.  

Trump asserts that he believes in weather, not climate change.  He said, “unless somebody can prove something to me… I believe there’s weather.”  Millions of scientists apparently do not count as somebodies who could prove something to him.  In fact, over 300 scientists from the US National Academy of Sciences recently penned an open letter warning of the disastrous effects that will occur if Trump gains power and drops out of the Paris Climate Agreement.  The scientists say that this move by Trump would tell the rest of the world that the United States simply doesn’t care about the global man-made problem of global warming.  Trump has admitted that while President Obama believes climate change is the world’s #1 problem, he himself thinks it is very low on the list. 

What could happen with Trump in power? 
If Trump were to become president, he would be the only national leader in the world who denies that climate change is a human-made problem.   

Statoil, a Norwegian energy company, releases an annual report detailing the trends of energy use.  In this year’s report, they revealed a new section, “Rivalry.” In it, they explain what the world might look like if people like Trump get elected.  Countries would be more interested in their own economic and energy requirements than collaborating and working together to slow climate change.  The focus would be on the cheapest and most accessible fuel option.  Coal use would increase and account for 32% of global energy consumption.  

Moving forward
If Trump is elected he will undoubtedly put the needs of a fossil-fuel based economy above global commitments to combating climate change.  Climate activists need to turn their attention to this growing concern.  It’s no longer enough to encourage technological development or finding ways to make green alternatives more accessible.  It’s time to elect green leaders, stop climate change deniers from getting into office and fight for a future that the next generations will be able to enjoy.